ANYTHING HAPPENING? – AT 12:38 P.M. ET:  Yeah, well, they're all out campaigning.  Tuesday will mark two weeks until election day, so panic is starting to set in.  Nobody in the political world is interested in much else.  World War III could break out, and the political class would ask only how it affects the 8th District in Minnesota. 

Some latest:  In both Missouri and Arizona, there are delightful little signs that the forces of good are starting to edge ahead in Senate races.   Today's report Has Hawley one point ahead of McCaskill in Missouri, and yesterday's report had McSally two points ahead of the evil Sinema in Arizona.  These are tiny leads, well inside the margin of error, but I'd rather be ahead than behind. 

By contrast, there is bad Senate news from Florida.  I hope this is thoroughly inaccurate, but a new CNN poll out today has incumbent Dem Bill Nelson five points ahead of terrific Governor Rick Scott.  The most recent poll had Scott two points ahead, in a much larger sample. 

In the immortal words of William Goldman's assessment of Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything. "  This midterm will be a good test of polling, as turnout is expected to be much higher, on both sides, than it usually is.

Rasmussen has an interesting take on the generic ballot:   

With just a little over two weeks left until Election Day, the battle for control of Congress looks closer to us than it does for a lot of other pollsters.

The Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot remains in a near tie after the Democrats’ longtime lead vanished following the Kavanaugh confirmation controversy.

Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh thing than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.Will they still feel that way a couple weeks from now?

Most voters think Democrats are likely to take charge of the House of Representatives following next month’s elections but expect them to fall short of capturing the Senate.

Just before the 2014 midterm elections, 62% of voters said a GOP takeover of the Senate was likely, but only 34% thought Democrats would win control of the House. Republicans gained seats in both chambers to take full control of the Congress.

COMMENT:  I think it's fascinating for Rasmussen to observe that it is an outlier in the generic ballot polls.  If they turn out to be right, they go into the Pollster Hall of Fame, which is located in the basement of a bar near the US Capitol in Washington.  If they're wrong, we will gladly forgive.

October 21,  2018